Primary Care Market

What Is the Primary Care Market Size?

The global primary care market size was valued at USD 1.42 trillion in 2025 and is estimated at USD 1.49 trillion in 2026, forecast to reach USD 2.35 trillion by 2035, expanding at a 5.2% CAGR between 2026 and 2035. North America leads with approximately 49% share, while Independent Practices dominate all other provider types with approximately 24% share.

We observed that growth is concentrated in value-based care networks and chronic care management, with hybrid consultation models and geriatric care demand driving the dominant structural shifts through 2035.

Market Opportunity: The primary care market is expected to create an absolute dollar opportunity of USD 0.86 trillion between 2026 and 2035, presenting significant investment potential across value-based care networks and chronic care coordination infrastructure.

According to Next Move Strategy Consulting analysis, value-based care enablement companies are increasingly recruiting independent practices and community health centers into shared-savings networks rather than pursuing direct clinic ownership, a shift that favors capital-light network operators over vertically integrated clinic owners as federal accountable care program participation continues to expand through 2035.

What Does the Primary Care Market Encompass?

The primary care market encompasses the independent practices, hospital and health system-affiliated practices, physician groups, value-based networks, retail clinics, and virtual-first providers that deliver preventive, acute, and chronic care as a patient's first point of contact with the healthcare system. Our assessment indicates that the scope spans fee-for-service and value-based payment models, in-person, virtual, and hybrid consultation formats, and care delivered across pediatric, adult, and geriatric patient populations by independent practices, payer-owned clinics, employer clinics, and community health centers worldwide.

The market has evolved from a predominantly fee-for-service, independent-practice model toward consolidated value-based networks as payers and retailers acquire or partner with primary care providers to manage population health risk. We observed that the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services' Medicare Shared Savings Program continues to expand accountable care organization participation, reshaping provider payment incentives. Next Move Strategy Consulting's analysis indicates that this shift toward value-based capitation, combined with growing hybrid virtual and in-person care delivery, is redefining competitive dynamics across the market.

Key Emerging Trends

Based on research conducted by Next Move Strategy Consulting, we found that four structural trends are reshaping payment models, care delivery formats, and network consolidation across the industry.

How Is Value-Based Network Expansion Transforming Independent Practice Economics?

Value-based care enablement companies are rapidly expanding their networks of independent primary care practices participating in shared-savings programs. We observed that Aledade added more than 700 new primary care organizations to its network for the 2026 performance year, bringing its total partner base to over 3,000 organizations serving more than 3 million patients. Independent practices are increasingly joining these networks to access population health infrastructure without surrendering practice ownership.

Why Is Retailer-Owned Primary Care Reshaping Patient Access Points?

Large retailers and technology companies continue to expand owned or affiliated primary care clinic networks to capture a greater share of patients' healthcare spending. Our findings suggest that CVS Health's integration of Oak Street Health's value-based primary care model with its retail pharmacy footprint continues to expand clinic density in underserved communities. Retail-affiliated primary care providers are expanding similar co-located clinic models to increase patient access points.

How Is Federal Policy Accelerating the Shift From Fee-for-Service to Value-Based Payment?

Federal policy momentum continues to support accountable care organization growth within Medicare, reshaping provider payment incentives away from traditional fee-for-service reimbursement. We observed that Aledade reported serving nearly 20% of all Medicare Shared Savings Program participants in 2026, reflecting sustained federal policy support for value-based care models. Provider organizations are increasingly restructuring payment contracts to capture value-based shared-savings opportunities.

What Role Does Geriatric-Focused Care Delivery Play in Provider Network Strategy?

Provider organizations are increasingly building dedicated care models for Medicare-eligible senior patients as geriatric care demand accelerates. Our analysis shows that ChenMed and Oak Street Health have built senior-focused primary care models emphasizing longer patient visits and closer care coordination for Medicare Advantage populations. Provider networks are expanding similar senior-focused clinic formats to address the growing complexity of geriatric chronic care management.

Consumer Behavior Analysis of the Primary Care Market

The infographic illustrates the consumer behavior journey in the primary care market through four key stages: awareness, consideration, purchase, and loyalty. Patients first learn about preventive healthcare through digital campaigns, physician recommendations, and community outreach. They then compare providers based on accessibility, quality, affordability, and insurance coverage before booking consultations. Positive care experiences encourage long-term loyalty, leading to repeat visits for preventive services, chronic disease management, and regular follow-up care.

Growth Drivers and Restraints

Growth Catalyst and Risk Assessment Matrix

What Is the Primary Growth Driver of the Primary Care Market?

Expanding Medicare Shared Savings Program accountable care organization participation is the primary driver of the market. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services continues to grow enrollment in its flagship value-based care program, with value-based care enablement companies serving an increasing share of new program participants each year. We observed that this policy momentum, combined with growing independent practice interest in shared-savings arrangements, continues to anchor baseline demand for value-based primary care infrastructure across developed markets.

How Is Chronic Disease Burden Driving Primary Care Market Growth?

Rising chronic disease prevalence is driving market growth by increasing demand for structured care coordination across primary care networks. The Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality continues to document the growing burden of multiple chronic condition management on the U.S. primary care system. Our assessment indicates that this chronic disease burden, combined with an aging patient population, is compressing procurement timelines for providers expanding dedicated chronic and geriatric care programs.

What Is Restraining Primary Care Market Expansion?

Primary care physician shortages constrain network expansion capacity, particularly across rural and underserved regions. The Health Resources and Services Administration continues to designate a significant share of U.S. counties as primary care health professional shortage areas. We found that this workforce constraint disproportionately affects value-based network operators seeking to expand coverage into underserved communities, slowing the pace at which new practices can be onboarded into accountable care arrangements.

Segmentation Analysis

Segment Sizing: By Provider Type

Which Provider Type Segment Dominates the Primary Care Market?

Independent Practices led the market with USD 0.34 trillion in 2025, reflecting their continued role as the largest single channel through which patients access primary care services. We observed that Value-Based Networks is the fastest-growing provider type, expanding at a 10.5% CAGR from 2026 to 2035, as accountable care enablement companies rapidly recruit independent and community-based practices into shared-savings arrangements.

Segment Sizing: By Clinical Offering

Which Clinical Offering Segment Leads Primary Care Market Demand?

Chronic Care remained the leading clinical offering within the market, valued at USD 0.37 trillion in 2025, on sustained demand for structured management of diabetes, hypertension, and other long-term conditions. Our findings suggest that Behavioral Health is the fastest-growing clinical offering, registering an 8.6% CAGR from 2026 to 2035, as primary care providers increasingly integrate mental health services into routine care delivery.

Segment Sizing: By Payment Model

Which Payment Model Is Most Widely Adopted in the Primary Care Market?

Fee-for-Service remained the dominant payment model across the market, reaching USD 0.82 trillion in 2025 due to its continued prevalence across traditional commercial insurance and Medicare reimbursement structures. Based on research conducted by Next Move Strategy Consulting, we found that Value-Based / Capitation is the fastest-growing payment model at an 8.9% CAGR from 2026 to 2035, reflecting accelerating provider transition toward shared-savings and capitated contracts.

Growth Opportunities

Our analysis shows that three forward-looking opportunities stand out for stakeholders positioning within the primary care market over the 2026-2035 forecast period.

How Can Value-Based Network Platforms Unlock Value for Independent Practices?

Value-based network enablement platforms present a whitespace opportunity for technology and services companies serving independent practices seeking accountable care participation. Providers that commercialize turnkey population health analytics and shared-savings distribution infrastructure stand to capture recurring network fees as independent practices increasingly seek support transitioning away from fee-for-service reimbursement.

Where Does Hybrid Care Delivery Create New Demand Among Health Systems?

Hospital and health system-affiliated primary care practices represent an underpenetrated opportunity for vendors offering hybrid virtual and in-person care coordination platforms. Providers that develop seamless scheduling and follow-up infrastructure spanning both consultation formats can secure long-term contracts with health systems, benefiting from recurring platform fees as hybrid care delivery becomes standard practice.

How Can Geriatric-Focused Clinic Models Benefit Medicare Advantage Plans?

Medicare Advantage plans seeking improved senior patient outcomes create an opportunity for providers offering dedicated geriatric-focused primary care clinic formats. Early movers that develop longer-visit, care-coordination-intensive clinic models can differentiate with health plans pursuing improved quality scores and reduced hospitalization rates among Medicare-eligible populations.

Regulatory Framework Impacting the Primary Care Market

The infographic outlines the regulatory framework shaping the market. Government initiatives promote healthcare funding and preventive care expansion, while accreditation standards and patient safety regulations ensure quality care delivery. Regulatory oversight includes provider licensing, digital health privacy compliance, and routine healthcare facility inspections. Future policies emphasize telehealth reimbursement and value-based care, while trade and tariff regulations influence medical equipment imports and pharmaceutical procurement, supporting a more efficient and compliant primary healthcare ecosystem.

Regional Outlook

Geographic Performance Snapshot

North America Primary Care Market Outlook

North America leads the market with the most advanced value-based payment infrastructure and the largest concentration of accountable care organization participation. We observed that the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services' continued expansion of the Medicare Shared Savings Program sustains demand for value-based network enablement across the region. Technology adoption remains advanced, with hybrid consultation models and population health analytics gaining share across the region's mature primary care ecosystem.

Europe Primary Care Market Outlook

Europe's market reflects a mature, publicly funded landscape shaped by national health service reform and expanding general practitioner network investment. Our findings suggest that healthcare systems across the UK, Germany, and France are investing in digital consultation infrastructure to address general practitioner capacity constraints. Technology adoption favors providers with proven public health system integration experience, supported by growing government investment in primary care digitalization.

Asia-Pacific Primary Care Market Outlook

Asia-Pacific is the fastest-growing major market region, propelled by rising chronic disease burden and expanding government-backed primary care infrastructure across China, India, and Japan. We found that regulatory frameworks remain less harmonized than in Europe, giving provider networks flexibility to scale rapidly across emerging healthcare delivery markets. Technology adoption is accelerating as regional health systems expand digital and hybrid consultation infrastructure.

Middle East & Africa Primary Care Market Outlook

The market in Middle East & Africa is expanding as Gulf Cooperation Council economies invest in primary healthcare infrastructure tied to national health strategy programs. Our analysis shows that Saudi Arabia and the UAE are attracting primary care investment linked to broader healthcare modernization initiatives. Regulatory influence remains moderate, while technology adoption is gradually increasing as regional governments expand primary care network capacity.

Latin America Primary Care Market Outlook

Latin America's primary care market is supported by expanding public health network capacity and rising private primary care adoption across Brazil and Argentina. We observed that regulatory frameworks remain less developed than in North America or Europe, though national health ministries are gradually strengthening primary care infrastructure investment. Technology adoption remains centered on in-person care delivery, with competitive intensity increasing as private providers expand regional clinic networks.

U.S. Primary Care Market

Based on our estimates, the U.S. market was valued at approximately USD 0.62 trillion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 0.91 trillion by 2035, growing at a 3.9% CAGR. Demand is anchored by the largest concentration of accountable care organizations and established value-based payment infrastructure. Technology penetration favors value-based network enablement platforms, and competitive intensity remains high among established payers, retailers, and independent network operators serving Medicare and commercial populations.

Canada Primary Care Market

The market in Canada reached roughly USD 0.06 trillion in 2025 and is forecast to hit USD 0.08 trillion by 2035 at a 4.0% CAGR. Demand structure reflects Canada's publicly funded primary care system and growing interest in hybrid consultation models to address provider capacity constraints. Technology penetration is rising as provincial health systems request digital scheduling and virtual care platforms, with competitive intensity moderate given the market's public health system structure.

UK Primary Care Market

As per our estimate, the UK market stood at about USD 0.07 trillion in 2025, advancing toward USD 0.10 trillion by 2035 at a 4.2% CAGR. Demand is driven by the National Health Service's general practitioner network and growing digital-first consultation adoption to address appointment capacity pressures. Regulatory influence from national health service commissioning guidance is notable, and technology adoption favors providers with proven NHS-aligned digital triage experience.

Germany Primary Care Market

According to our analysis, Germany's market reached close to USD 0.08 trillion in 2025 and is expected to hit USD 0.11 trillion by 2035, growing at a 4.2% CAGR. Demand is supported by Germany's statutory health insurance system and expanding investment in primary care digitalization. Regulatory influence is well established under national health insurance guidance, technology penetration is advancing, and competitive intensity remains moderate among providers serving Germany's largely publicly insured population.

France Primary Care Market

Based on our estimates, France's market reached approximately USD 0.05 trillion in 2025, projected to climb to USD 0.07 trillion by 2035 at a 4.0% CAGR. Demand is supported by France's national health insurance framework and growing investment in coordinated care pathways for chronic disease management. Regulatory influence from national health authority rules is notable, and competitive intensity remains moderate given the market's predominantly public payer structure.

China Primary Care Market

The market in China stood at roughly USD 0.08 trillion in 2025 and is forecast to reach USD 0.17 trillion by 2035, registering a 7.1% CAGR. Demand is fueled by China's expanding community health center infrastructure and rising chronic disease burden among an aging population. Regulatory influence is increasing gradually under national health commission guidance, technology penetration is accelerating, and competitive intensity remains elevated among domestic and international healthcare providers.

India Primary Care Market

As per our estimate, India's market was valued at about USD 0.06 trillion in 2025, projected to reach USD 0.15 trillion by 2035 at a 9.9% CAGR, the fastest among covered countries. Demand structure reflects rapidly expanding primary healthcare infrastructure investment and growing private clinic network development across major urban centers. Regulatory influence remains developing, while technology penetration is rising quickly as providers localize digital consultation infrastructure to serve India's expanding patient base.

Japan Primary Care Market

According to our analysis, Japan's market reached close to USD 0.05 trillion in 2025 and is expected to hit USD 0.09 trillion by 2035, growing at a 5.4% CAGR. Demand is supported by Japan's rapidly aging population and expanding geriatric-focused primary care investment. Regulatory influence is well established, technology penetration is advancing among domestic providers, and competitive intensity remains moderate given a predominantly public insurance-funded system.

South Korea Primary Care Market

Based on our estimates, South Korea's market stood at approximately USD 0.03 trillion in 2025, forecast to reach USD 0.06 trillion by 2035 at a 7.4% CAGR. Demand structure benefits from the country's advanced digital health infrastructure and growing chronic disease management program investment. Technology penetration is high, with domestic providers piloting digital-first consultation models, and competitive intensity remains moderate amid steady provider network expansion.

Australia Primary Care Market

The primary care market in Australia reached about USD 0.02 trillion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 0.04 trillion by 2035, expanding at a 6.0% CAGR. Demand is supported by Australia's Medicare-funded general practitioner network and growing telehealth adoption in rural and remote communities. Regulatory influence stems from national health department guidance, while technology adoption favors platforms supporting rural telehealth access amid rising competitive intensity.

UAE Primary Care Market

As per our estimate, the UAE market was valued near USD 0.02 trillion in 2025, projected to reach USD 0.03 trillion by 2035 at a 6.4% CAGR. Demand structure is shaped by the UAE's role as a regional healthcare investment hub with growing private primary care clinic development. Regulatory influence remains moderate, technology penetration is improving through imported digital health platforms, and competitive intensity is rising as private providers expand primary care networks to serve Gulf markets.

Saudi Arabia Primary Care Market

According to our analysis, Saudi Arabia's market reached roughly USD 0.02 trillion in 2025 and is expected to hit USD 0.04 trillion by 2035, growing at an 8.1% CAGR. Demand is driven by national healthcare transformation investment and expanding primary care infrastructure under Vision 2030 initiatives. Regulatory influence is developing under national health ministry guidelines, and technology penetration is advancing as domestic providers scale primary care network deployments.

South Africa Primary Care Market

Based on our estimates, South Africa's market stood at about USD 0.01 trillion in 2025, forecast to reach USD 0.02 trillion by 2035 at a 6.5% CAGR. Demand structure reflects a developing primary healthcare infrastructure program addressing limited access across the national public health network. Regulatory influence remains moderate, technology penetration is gradually improving, and competitive intensity is limited given reliance on public health system capacity constraints.

Brazil Primary Care Market

The market in Brazil reached approximately USD 0.03 trillion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 0.04 trillion by 2035, registering a 4.8% CAGR. Demand is underpinned by Brazil's expanding public primary health strategy network and growing private clinic adoption among insured populations. Regulatory influence stems from national health ministry oversight, technology penetration favors public-private hybrid care delivery, and competitive intensity remains moderate among regional providers.

Argentina Primary Care Market

As per our estimate, Argentina's market was valued near USD 0.01 trillion in 2025, projected to reach USD 0.02 trillion by 2035 at a 5.4% CAGR. Demand structure is supported by steady public primary care network utilization despite macroeconomic volatility. Regulatory influence remains limited, technology penetration is modest, and competitive intensity is centered on a mix of public health network providers and smaller private clinics.

Competitive Landscape

We observed that the primary care market features a moderately fragmented competitive landscape, with large payers and retailers competing alongside specialized value-based care enablement companies and independent physician-led networks on network scale, payment model innovation, and patient access points.

How Do Companies Compete in the Primary Care Market?

Companies compete primarily on network scale, payment model innovation, and patient access point density across the industry. Large payers and retailers such as UnitedHealth Group and CVS Health leverage integrated pharmacy, insurance, and clinic assets to serve broad patient populations, while specialized value-based care enablement companies such as Aledade compete on shared-savings infrastructure and independent practice partnership depth.

Which Competitive Archetypes Dominate the Primary Care Market?

Two archetypes dominate the market: vertically integrated payer-retailer groups offering owned clinic networks alongside insurance and pharmacy assets, and specialized value-based care enablement companies supporting independent practice networks without direct clinic ownership. CVS Health and UnitedHealth Group exemplify the integrated archetype, while Aledade exemplifies the network enablement archetype through its shared-savings partnership model.

How Are Companies Differentiating Through Innovation in Primary Care?

Innovation and differentiation strategy increasingly center on value-based network scale and senior-focused care delivery models. Aledade's record 2026 network expansion and ChenMed's senior-focused clinic model both reflect a shift toward specialized, outcomes-oriented care delivery. Our analysis shows that providers unable to demonstrate credible value-based care infrastructure risk exclusion from payer and health system partnership shortlists.

What M&A and Expansion Activity Is Shaping the Primary Care Market?

Mergers, acquisitions, and geographic expansion continue to consolidate patient access points within the industry. CVS Health's integration of Oak Street Health's value-based primary care model with its retail footprint and Amazon's expansion of its primary care clinic network both illustrate how retailers and technology companies pursue vertical integration into primary care delivery.

Key Market Players

Our assessment indicates that the following 15 companies are actively shaping value-based network scale, patient access point expansion, and payment model innovation within the global primary care market.

• UnitedHealth Group Incorporated

• CVS Health Corporation

• Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc.

• Amazon.com, Inc.

• Kaiser Foundation Health Plan, Inc.

• Humana Inc.

• Teladoc Health, Inc.

• American Well Corporation

• Aledade, Inc.

• Cityblock Health, Inc.

• ChenMed, LLC

• Oak Street Health, Inc.

• Devoted Health, Inc.

• DuPage Medical Group, Ltd. (Duly Health and Care)

• CommonSpirit Health

Latest Developments

We found that recent developments within the primary care market are concentrated on value-based network expansion and accountable care program growth, reflecting the industry's broader shift away from fee-for-service reimbursement.

Expert Insights

“Ensuring stability, resiliency, and access to primary care will only improve the health care system.”

— Liz Fowler, Deputy Administrator, Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) and Director, Center for Medicare & Medicaid Innovation (CMMI)

Statement made during the announcement of the Making Care Primary (MCP) Model, June 2023.

Market Interpretation:

This statement reflects the global shift toward strengthening primary care infrastructure through value-based care, coordinated care delivery, and preventive health management. Governments and healthcare systems are increasing investments in primary care practices to improve patient outcomes, reduce avoidable hospitalizations, and lower long-term healthcare costs. The initiative also supports digital health adoption, care coordination, and independent primary care providers, reinforcing primary care as the foundation of sustainable healthcare systems.

Investment Opportunities

What Capital Inflows Are Targeting the Primary Care Market?

Capital inflows into the primary care market are increasingly directed toward value-based network enablement platforms and senior-focused clinic operators. Aledade's $500 million credit facility closed in December 2025 reflects sustained lender confidence in value-based care network scaling. We observed that investors favor providers demonstrating validated shared-savings performance, viewing Medicare Shared Savings Program participation share as a proxy for long-term network durability.

How Is Infrastructure Investment Supporting Primary Care Market Scaling?

Infrastructure investment is expanding population health analytics and care coordination platforms to support growing value-based network scale. Our findings suggest that network enablement companies are investing in data infrastructure to support real-time quality measure tracking and shared-savings distribution across thousands of independent practice partners, positioning providers to onboard new practices more efficiently each performance year.

What ESG Considerations Are Shaping Primary Care Investment Decisions?

Environmental, social, and governance considerations are relevant to investment decisions across the industry, with healthcare access equity in underserved communities as a key governance criterion. Aledade's network expansion into federally designated health professional shortage areas illustrates how access equity is increasingly built into value-based network growth strategy. We found that investors increasingly treat underserved community access and community health center partnership as governance indicators alongside financial performance.

Key Benefits for Stakeholders

How Does This Report Benefit Enterprise and Industry Leaders?

Enterprise and industry leaders gain access to validated segmentation, competitive benchmarking, and regional demand forecasts that support network strategy and portfolio decisions across the primary care industry. Our analysis shows that detailed provider type, payment model, and clinical offering breakdowns help network operators align expansion strategy with value-based care adoption patterns while identifying underserved segments for portfolio expansion.

How Does This Report Benefit Investors and Financial Analysts?

Investors and financial analysts benefit from consistent, single-point market size and CAGR estimates that support valuation and capital-allocation decisions across the primary care provider landscape. We observed that the report's regional and segment-level growth differentials help identify which providers are best positioned to capture above-market growth in value-based network and geriatric care categories through 2035.

How Does This Report Benefit Technology Vendors and Product Teams?

Technology vendors and product teams gain insight into emerging platform requirements, including value-based network analytics and hybrid consultation scheduling, that are reshaping the industry. Our findings suggest that this analysis helps product teams prioritize development roadmaps around population health data integration and shared-savings distribution infrastructure increasingly required by provider network operators.

Key Market Segments

By Provider Type

• Independent Practices

• Hospital/Health System PCPs

• Large Physician Groups

• Value-Based Networks

• Direct/Concierge Care

• Retail Clinics

• Payer-Owned Clinics

• Employer Clinics

• Virtual-First PCPs

• Community Clinics

By Clinical Offering

• Preventive Care

• Acute Care

• Chronic Care

• Behavioral Health

• Women's & Pediatrics

• Diagnostics & Labs

• Care Coordination

• Other Services

By Payment Model

• Fee-for-Service

• Value-Based / Capitation

• Direct Patient Subscription

• Employer-Direct Contracting

By Mode of Consultation

• In-Person

• Virtual

• Hybrid

By Patient Demographics (Age)

• Pediatrics (0-18)

• Adults (19-64)

• Geriatrics (65+)

By Region

• North America: U.S., Canada, Mexico

• Europe: UK, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Netherlands, Rest of Europe

• Asia-Pacific: China, India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Indonesia, Vietnam, Australia, Philippines, Malaysia, Rest of APAC

• Middle East & Africa: Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt, Israel, Turkey, Nigeria, South Africa, Rest of MEA

• Latin America: Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Rest of LATAM

Conclusion and Recommendations

What Is the Long-Term Outlook for the Primary Care Market?

The long-term outlook for the market remains positive, with global revenue projected to grow from USD 1.42 trillion in 2025 to USD 2.35 trillion by 2035 at a 5.2% CAGR. We observed that sustained value-based payment expansion, rising chronic disease burden, and growing hybrid care delivery will continue underpinning demand across independent practice, health system, and retail clinic channels through the forecast period.

What Strategic Positioning Should Primary Care Providers Pursue?

Providers should prioritize value-based network participation and hybrid care delivery capability while pursuing senior-focused clinic models to capture growing geriatric care demand. Our assessment indicates that organizations investing early in population health analytics and shared-savings infrastructure will be best positioned to capture premium reimbursement within the primary care market.

How Attractive Is the Primary Care Market for New Investment?

The primary care industry presents an attractive investment case, supported by a USD 0.86 trillion absolute dollar opportunity between 2026 and 2035 and above-average growth in Middle East & Africa and value-based network categories. We found that investment attractiveness is highest for providers combining validated shared-savings performance with scaled independent practice network reach.

What Market Shifts and Key Risks Should Stakeholders Monitor?

Stakeholders should monitor primary care physician shortages, reimbursement complexity slowing value-based transition, and limited infrastructure investment in underserved regions as key risks to the primary care market. Our analysis shows that providers unable to adapt to evolving payment model requirements risk losing patient volume to competitors with proven value-based care infrastructure.

What Are the Key Growth Pathways for the Primary Care Market?

Key growth pathways include expanding value-based network enablement for independent practices, scaling senior-focused clinic models for Medicare Advantage populations, and deepening hybrid virtual and in-person care delivery capability. Next Move Strategy Consulting's analysis indicates that providers pursuing these pathways while maintaining cost competitiveness in standard fee-for-service categories will be best positioned to capture the primary care market's projected growth through 2035.